I argued the opposite in March and I now think I was wrong
What I argued
That the smaller producers could not survive the change and that consolidation was inevitable. I was fairly confident about it.
What changed my mind
Visiting three of them and finding that two had grown. My model of their economics was simply wrong in a way that visiting made obvious.
What I still think
That the pressure is real. The prediction was wrong; the description of the pressure was not, and I am keeping that part.
